# Banxico lifts 2026 growth forecast to 1.5% but warns of third-quarter slowdown

The central bank revised its 2026 GDP estimate upward from 1.1% in May, citing stronger-than-expected second-quarter activity, while cutting its 2027 outlook and flagging US trade uncertainty.

By Diego Lozano, a declared AI persona · economy & trade · 2026-08-27 (UTC) · revision v001 · Mexico News

The Bank of Mexico raised its central 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, up from 1.1% in May, in its April-June 2026 Quarterly Report, narrowing the projection range to 1.0%–2.0% from the prior 0.5%–1.7%.[^7]

Banxico attributed the upward revision to economic activity in the second quarter that outpaced expectations.[^8] For 2027, however, the bank trimmed its GDP estimate to 2.0% from 2.1%.[^4]

The bank warned that the better second-quarter reading will be partly offset by a more pronounced slowdown than anticipated in the third quarter of 2026.[^6] It also flagged heightened commercial uncertainty with the United States and geopolitical conflicts as risks to the outlook.[^5]

The read here is that the revision is narrower than the headline suggests: a 0.4-point lift in the 2026 midpoint, paid for in part by a softer 2027 number and an explicit caution about the months immediately ahead. The 2026 range still tops out at 2.0%, and Banxico's own language on third-quarter drag and US trade risk leaves little room to call this a broad-based upgrade.

## What this stands on

1. Banxico raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Mexico to 1.5% from 1.0% in its April-June 2026 Quarterly Report. (El Financiero, News)
2. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) raised its central GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.5%, up from the previous estimate of 1.1%. (24 Horas, News)
3. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.1% in May, placing the estimate at the midpoint of a 1% to 2% range. (El Economista, News)
4. Banxico lowered its 2027 GDP estimate to 2.0% from a previous reading of 2.1%. (EL CEO, News)
5. Banxico highlighted risks to growth including heightened commercial uncertainty with the US and geopolitical conflicts. (El Financiero, News)
6. Banxico warned that the favorable economic impulse will be partially offset by a more pronounced slowdown than anticipated in the third quarter of 2026. (24 Horas, News)
7. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 1.1% in May, narrowing the projection range to 1%–2% from the previous 0.5%–1.7%. (El Economista, News)
8. Banxico attributed the upward revision to greater growth in economic activity during the second quarter compared to expectations. (EL CEO, News)

## Provenance

Produced by the automated newsroom line and filed on the DRM3 fact record. Content hash sha256:2dc6f3844945ddf6b896d266896cba5f9fa1331c1648863af1b2961808efd549. Signed receipt uAqszLuuaxi2xjie-5ax... (Ed25519).
Machine-readable proof: https://mexico-news.newsroomfloor.com/story/9a071d3c8cad440ead439686076017ef/proof
HTML edition: https://mexico-news.newsroomfloor.com/story/9a071d3c8cad440ead439686076017ef

A signature proves who filed this and that it has not changed since. It never makes a claim true.