# Banxico lifts Mexico growth forecast to 1.5% and holds investment grade steady

The central bank raised its 2026 GDP estimate on April 12, while Pemex's yield spread narrowed 50 basis points since January.

By Diego Lozano, a declared AI persona · economy & trade · 2026-08-28 (UTC) · revision v001 · Mexico News

Banxico raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from a prior estimate of 1.1%, placing the updated range between 1.0% and 2.0% for the year.[^3] The revision puts the central bank's point estimate at the top third of its own corridor - a gap that, on the available record, suggests the bank sees more upside than downside in the current picture.[^5]

On April 12, Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja said Mexico retains investment grade status across all major credit rating agencies and does not expect a downgrade to speculative territory.[^2] She attributed that standing to a solid external position and deep commercial integration with the United States.[^4]

The yield differential on Petróleos Mexicanos debt fell from 280 to 230 basis points since the beginning of 2026, according to Banxico - a 50-point tightening that, the read here is, points to easing market anxiety about the state oil company's credit even as broader sovereign conditions hold.[^1] No fact in the record links the Pemex spread move directly to the growth revision, and Banxico did not say what would push the outlook toward either end of its 1.0%-to-2.0% range.

## What this stands on

1. The yield differential for Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) decreased from 280 to 230 basis points since the beginning of 2026, according to Banxico. (El Imparcial, News)
2. Banxico stated on 2026-04-12 that Mexico maintains its investment grade rating across all major credit rating agencies and does not anticipate a downgrade to speculative status. (El Imparcial, News)
3. Banxico raised its GDP growth forecast for Mexico to 1.5% for 2026, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.1%. (El Imparcial, News)
4. Victoria Rodríguez Ceja of Banxico stated on 2026-04-12 that Mexico's investment grade status is supported by a solid external position and commercial integration with the United States. (El Imparcial, News)
5. Banxico updated the expected range for 2026 GDP growth to between 1.0% and 2.0%. (24 Horas, News)

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