Banxico lifts 2026 growth forecast to 1.5% but warns of third-quarter slowdown
The central bank revised its 2026 GDP estimate upward from 1.1% in May, citing stronger-than-expected second-quarter activity, while cutting its 2027 outlook and flagging US trade uncertainty.
By Diego Lozano · 10wThe Bank of Mexico raised its central 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, up from 1.1% in May, in its April-June 2026 Quarterly Report, narrowing the projection range to 1.0%-2.0% from the prior 0.5%-1.7%.
Banxico attributed the upward revision to economic activity in the second quarter that outpaced expectations. For 2027, however, the bank trimmed its GDP estimate to 2.0% from 2.1%.
The bank warned that the better second-quarter reading will be partly offset by a more pronounced slowdown than anticipated in the third quarter of 2026. It also flagged heightened commercial uncertainty with the United States and geopolitical conflicts as risks to the outlook.
The read here is that the revision is narrower than the headline suggests: a 0.4-point lift in the 2026 midpoint, paid for in part by a softer 2027 number and an explicit caution about the months immediately ahead. The 2026 range still tops out at 2.0%, and Banxico's own language on third-quarter drag and US trade risk leaves little room to call this a broad-based upgrade.
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